Throughout human history it's important to know that most alliances are torn up whenever it's convenient. Most treaties are torn up when it's convenient. That's one of the things that makes World War I and II so unusual. Is that people actually followed treaties. That's even what the Germans said to the British when the Germans violated Belgium's borders. They said you're going to war over a piece of paper. Most Nations don't honor treaties unless it's in their immediate material advantage to do so.
this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2025
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I think you're correct at a high level, but there is also the medium-term and long-term impact of not honouring treaties which is less predictable and makes the calculation around not honouring a treaty less straightforward (even if in the immediate sense the drawbacks are minimal).
WW1/WW2 also had their fair of treaty violations. Sudetenland annexation is an early example. Nazi Germany breaking the Molotov–Ribbentrop to split up Europe with the russians is perhaps a better known example. Italy was also supposed to join the central power in WW1 as per their treaty examples.
While long term impacts are always difficult to quantify by definition, they do have impact on how people think (especially people in power).
It's not either-or, though. For instance, defending Belgium is not just a matter of keeping your word - It's also a convenient excuse for getting involved in the mainland, which you wanna do to stop Germany from dominating it and outbuilding your fleet.
That's one of the things that makes World War I and II so unusual.
Um, not sure where youre getting that... Germany began arms buildup literally as soon as WW1 was over in 1918. The Treaty of Versailles arguably marks the beginning of economic warfare in the 20th century.
This is to be expected, Venezuela is not a strategic priority for either russia or China.
Not to mention that a US invasion of Venezuela would provide a good propaganda win for Russia and China particularly in the "global south" where at least the leadership of countries like Brazil and South Africa are openly supportive of russian genocidal imperialism.
How the hell it's not? Venezuela send a lot of oil to china and russia
Pretty sure Russia has a surplus of oil because of sanctions (not to mention they're already funding their own war right now) and China is trying to significantly electrify.
Neither has a financial incentive to help an oil producing country like Venezuela, so they're not interested.
Despite electrification, oil is still critical to global military and economic power right now. Even the USA is electrifying but still want oil
Yeah, but Russia has tons of oil, due to sanctions by everyone, and China is right next door, and doesn't recognize sanctions. Sure, their need may be decreasing, but it's still significant. If Russia has lots of oil, and China is buying the surplus at a presumably lower rate (supply/demand), then Venezuela isn't an oil priority right now. If they had something else that Russia and/or China need, then they'd be higher priority, but right now they simply aren't important enough to confront America over.
And the MAGAs probably knew that BEFORE they started harassing Venezuela.
Much like trusting the US with a far right person in power, why would anyone trust Russia or China with their own far right people in power? They are only trying to "support" you if you can give them something they need, and the minute you ask for anything in return, the phone doesn't answer. This isn't exclusive to Russia or China or the US, this just how hugely powerful entities act around much less powerful entities.
Well it's obvious why. There is literally fuck all either country could do to materially support them.
For all that's happening with China, it's navy is still confined to China's sphere of influence. I've no doubt that whilst it would give the US Navy a bloody nose during an invasion of Taiwan, its a totally different ball game when it comes to projecting power.
Currently only three navies in the world have the ability to project any sort of military power of significance, the USA, UK and France. Sending the Chinese navy into America's backyard would be a death sentence.
As for Russia? Well they're an absolute joke. Their navy is unable to withstand attacks from a country with no navy.
And in any event, any attempt to intervene militarily would potentially invite a response from NATO and Australia.
Would be funny if Russia turned Venezuela into the US Ukraine. Flood the country with weapons and aid and make them slowly bleed in a quagmire that their pride won't let them leave.
Doesn't look like Russia has the spare production capacity though because of the quagmire.
At this point it's happened so many times within living memory that even Americans might say "hey wait a second this is another quagmire". I know, I'm optimistic.
Obviously. Everybody knows that if the US is able to invade Venezuela and set up some puppet government. The big question is if they end up with some sort of rebell movement. That however would be supported secretly. Also neither helped Iran, so that was to be expected.
Lmao for a second I thought from the headline they were described as US allies. Crazy world we need to live in.
It’s kayfabe in a new era of spheres of influence.