Sepia

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43244142

A new joint assessment by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) and the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) aims to dispel any remaining scepticism among those who still fail to recognise the threat from Russia.

The document [is] not yet public ... The weekly newspaper Spiegel obtained a draft and outlined its main findings [links to article in German]. The 30‑page analysis details cases of disinformation, espionage, sabotage, subversion and political influence operations in Germany.

The study covers the period from July 2024 to June 2025, also examining the consequences of earlier incidents. In just the first six months of 2025, 143 suspected acts of sabotage were recorded – an upward trend.

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“The central conclusion: Germany is at the heart of hybrid threats. They emanate not only from Russia, but above all from Russia,” Spiegel writes. The aim of hybrid operations is to foster a sense of insecurity and destabilise the state. The analysis suggests that various incidents that have shaken Germany form a chain of hybrid attacks either orchestrated or exploited by Russia.

A recent public hearing with all three German intelligence agencies likewise concluded that Russia is the primary actor behind sabotage and subversive activity in the country.

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Another key finding: in planning acts of sabotage, Russia shows no hesitation in taking lives. One example concerns an attack in the logistics sector with links to Lithuania.

In July 2024, incendiary devices were sent by DHL aircraft from Lithuania to the UK and Germany. A major disaster was narrowly avoided: the parcels did not make it onto the intended aircraft because it was delayed. The devices ignited in DHL’s Leipzig warehouse instead.

Investigators believe so‑called single‑use agents – individuals recruited via channels such as Telegram and given limited information – were used in Lithuania and other countries to carry out such operations.

Low‑level agents, often drawn from the criminal underworld, are suspected in other cases too – including a 2024 attempt to cast a shadow over then Vice‑Chancellor Robert Habeck and his Green Party. Hundreds of exhaust pipes were clogged with expanding foam, and cars were plastered with stickers featuring Mr Habeck’s image. These actions are seen as an attempt to influence the Bundestag election campaign.

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The report also identifies tools of political influence, such as the pro‑Russian platform Voice of Europe, through which pro‑Kremlin members of the European Parliament were allegedly financed. AfD MEP Petr Bystron is among those investigated over suspected payments from the portal.

Security agencies also point to the instrumentalisation of violent attacks on German society for propaganda purposes. After the fatal attack at Magdeburg’s Christmas market last December, Russian channels used the incident to discredit the German government and praise the AfD as a “positive alternative”, fuelling social tension and seeking to shift Germany’s political course.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43242104

You can download the study here: No sense of safety under heaven

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Beyond individual intimidation, the study highlights how these pro-China diaspora networks try to influence local politics. Community groups and lobbyists aligned with Beijing work to shape debates in foreign parliaments, cultivate alliances and strengthen what the author, Ray Wong, calls a “repressive nationalist diaspora.” Such efforts, the study warns, do more than target individuals: they erode basic rights and shift political environments in ways favorable to China’s foreign policy objectives.

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Current [German] legislation does not yet clearly address harassment, coercion or intimidation carried out by non-state actors acting on behalf of a foreign government. As a result, some dissidents living in Germany - including Uyghur, Tibetan, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese activists - may face gaps in protection. Enhancing the legal framework, the study suggests, would help ensure that all individuals on German soil can fully rely on the country’s commitment to safeguarding fundamental rights.

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The study acknowledges Germany’s strong emphasis on victim protection and crisis response, but notes that these efforts could be further strengthened through more robust preventive measures. Enhancing legal tools to address foreign-directed surveillance and harassment, it suggests, would help ensure that critics are better protected and that authorities are fully equipped to respond effectively.

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The author also calls for a central coordinating authority to link intelligence services, law enforcement, foreign policy units and victim support agencies. Such coordination, the study suggests, would enable Germany to respond even more effectively to emerging challenges and align more closely with other democracies that are enhancing their approaches to foreign interference.

Ultimately the study serves as a stark reminder: the battleground over fundamental rights is no longer limited by geography. Taking proactive steps, it suggests, would not only strengthen Germany’s national security but also reinforce the country’s longstanding commitment to human rights and democracy at home.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43239009

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Here are the documents (in Russian).

• After Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine, China decided to purchase Russian aircraft, combat vehicles, ammunition, and equipment to enhance its paratroopers.
• Chinese officers and representatives of defense manufacturers have repeatedly visited Russia to inspect examples of weaponry and negotiate deals.
• In 2023 and 2024, Beijing entered into several confidential contracts with Moscow to acquire Russian armaments, with the funds intended for Russian arms manufacturers being subject to international sanctions.
• The known deadline for implementing some of the contracts is 2027.
• The Kyiv Independent has identified several dozen Chinese military personnel and employees of arms manufacturers who continued to cooperate with the Russian arms industry, thereby violating international sanctions.

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A little over a month after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian government received a request from China, according to leaked correspondence reviewed by the Kyiv Independent.

In it, Beijing asked to buy a set of weapons and armored vehicles for airborne troops. The request, numbered ZH2022-Y53, was received on April 7, 2022, the documents show.

Three weeks later, according to the documents, Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation instructed Rosoboronexport, the state-owned company responsible for all arms exports from Russia, to demonstrate Russian air-droppable combat vehicles to a Chinese delegation.

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The agreements are set to provide sanctioned Russian arms manufacturers with revenue from the export of their weaponry to China. In return, China will receive weaponry and equipment for its airborne forces, the PLAAF Airborne Corps, which have been strengthening amid expectations of an attack on Taiwan.

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A key element of the cooperation is the steady flow of Chinese officers and defense industry officials who have been traveling to Russia since 2023 for closed-door talks. By piecing together leaked Russian documents with photos and travel data, the Kyiv Independent was able to identify many of these previously anonymous visitors by name and rank.

Chinese Major General Fan Jianjun was photographed during his visit to the annual Russian arms forum in the Moscow suburbs in August 2023. He was pictured showing then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu models of Chinese weaponry.

Fan Jianjun represented China's highest military authority, the Central Military Commission of the People's Republic of China (PRC). In 2023, he led the Bureau of Military Equipment and Technical Cooperation within the Equipment Development Department of the PRC Central Military Commission.

The Bureau's procurement division purchases imported weapons and equipment for China, including from Russia.

None of the Russian media that covered the event mentioned who was in the photo next to Shoigu.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43232410

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Russia has ramped up its recruitment of foreign fighters through a targeted social media campaign, offering citizenship and money to those who join its fight.

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The promise of roles away from the front line are aimed at enticing people to sign up, but experts [like] Sascha Bachmann, a professor in law and security at the University of Canberra, said the promise of safe service was "not true".

"Russia is trying to close a manpower gap. They sign people up for a promised non-combat role but they then end up as part of Moscow's meat grinder," he said.

"It is deception."

Data sourced by OpenMinds, a defence tech company, shows that by mid-2025, one in three contract announcements posted by Russian government pages was aimed at foreigners.

In total, the number of these posts has risen to more than 4,500 a month from less than 100 in early 2024.

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Dr Bachmann believed the main reason Russia had increased recruitment efforts abroad was because it "has real problems recruiting from within its population".

Dr Bachmann called it "cognitive domain propaganda", which he said refers to military activities that are designed to affect the attitude of the public.

"Russia is very interested in having more foreign volunteers … because then they can say they have common power, more boots on the ground. It helps them form a fresh narrative," he said.

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In one of the social media posts, a phone number is provided and people in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Serbia, Kyrgyzstan, Africa, India and others are encouraged to call.

However, residents of other countries have been targeted too, including China, India, Iraq, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Bangladesh and others in Asia, and the Middle East.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43231856

International Criminal Court [ICC] arrest warrants for President Vladimir Putin and five other Russians accused of war crimes in Ukraine will stay in place even if a blanket amnesty is approved during U.S.-led peace talks, ICC prosecutors said on Friday.

Deputy prosecutors Mame Mandiaye Niang of Senegal and Nazhat Shameem Khan of Fiji, who have been responsible for investigations at the court since the chief prosecutor went on leave, said a United Nations Security Council resolution would be required to suspend court-issued warrants.

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The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin and the other five over their alleged roles in atrocities during the war that began with Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Putin and Russian Child Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova face allegations of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine.

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Among other high-profile Russian suspects sought by the International Criminal Court are Sergei Shoigu, the former defence minister, and Russian general Valery Gerasimov, who are wanted for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity for attacks on civilians.

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"If there is a peace deal which then leads the Security Council to ask us to defer an investigation, then that's a matter - that's a political process for the Security Council. But as far as we're concerned...at the end of the day, it does not stop the way that justice is delivered," Deputy Prosecutor Khan said, citing the court's founding Rome Statute.

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Deputy Prosecutor Niang said that "apart from the bracket we mentioned in respect of the Security Council route, we are obligated to observe our statute, which does not give weight to some of those political arrangements".

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Ukraine's ambassador to the Netherlands, Andriy Kostin, who previously served as its prosecutor general, dismissed the idea of a blanket amnesty. "...With such mass atrocities committed in the course of these years, it's impossible to grant impunity for all those responsible, all those who committed these crimes and who ordered the commission of these crimes," he [said].

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43231602

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The regime of North Korea has continued to exploit the war in Ukraine to spread its propaganda. This week we learnt that Ukrainian children, abducted by Russia, are being sent to an infamous North Korean summer camp. The children have reportedly been taught to ‘destroy Japanese imperialists’ and heard from North Korean soldiers who destroyed the USS Pueblo, a spy ship captured and sank by North Korea in 1968.

This Ukrainian children have been at the Songdowon International Children’s Camp, located near the port city of Wonsan on the country’s east coast. Well known as a popular tourist hotspot for North Korean elites, Wonsan has recently gained infamy for the newly-opened Wonsan-Kalma tourist resort, which has been not-so-affectionately nicknamed ‘North Korea’s Benidorm’. Wonsan, too, has a significant place in North Korean history. It was where Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un spent much of his childhood.

The children’s camp is hardly a new creation. Established in 1960 amid the backdrop of the Cold War, the camp became one additional facet of North Korean cultural diplomacy, as Pyongyang sought to develop ties with communist and communist-friendly countries. Whether from North Korea’s Cold War patrons of Russia and China or communist-sympathising states further afield, such as Laos, Tanzania and even Syria, children would be sent to the camp to engage in a range of activities, including cooking, swimming, rock climbing, or marathon running. For the North Korean regime, the goal was simple: spread the virtues of socialism, North Korea-style, and become friends with like-minded states.

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Although little is known about the Ukrainian abductees sent to North Korea, cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow in areas beyond security looks to continue to grow, especially as peace in Ukraine looks evermore elusive. North Korea and Russia signed a mutual defence pact in June 2024, but these renewed ties were not limited to the domain of security. It was no coincidence that only a week after the ink was dry, Grigory Gurov, Head of the Russian Federal Agency for Youth Affairs, announced that around 250 Russian children, mainly from the Russian Far East, would visit Songdowon, making them one of the first groups to visit the camp following North Korea’s draconian three-year border closure, owing to coronavirus, in January 2021.

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Russia and North Korea are yet to respond to the reports that Ukrainian abductees are being sent to Songdowon. Pyongyang will probably just say the children were participating in a cultural exchange – helping out an ally. We need only go back to February this year when Russia’s ambassador to North Korea, Alexander Matsegora, announced that how ‘hundreds of wounded [Russian] soldiers’ fighting against Ukraine were being treated in North Korean hospitals, epitomising the ‘brotherly attitude’ between the two Cold War allies.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43056920

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The EU should activate a never-before-used trade tool to counter Chinese restrictions on exports of critical raw materials if a new plan unveiled on Wednesday fails, the EU’s industry commissioner Stéphane Séjourné said.

“If this doesn’t work, and in one or two years we find ourselves with value chains that close down from a lack of Chinese sourcing – because we’ve not diversified quickly and we’re still too dependent – we will probably have to use the anti-coercion instrument,” Séjourné said in an exclusive interview with Euractiv.

The European Commission’s “RESourceEU” strategy is a Japanese-inspired plan to weaken China’s vice-like grip on trade flows of materials crucial for the tech and defence industries, like gallium, lithium and cobalt.

The aim is to cut Europe’s overwhelming dependence on China – without making the Brussels-Beijing relationship even more tense than it already is.

“The idea is not to break dialogue with the Chinese, but we need to accelerate our diversification projects around the world,” the EU industrial strategy chief said.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43056460

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Ukrainian children abducted by Russia are being forcibly sent to a summer camp in North Korea, a legal expert has said.

Kateryna Rashevska, a representative from Ukraine’s regional centre for human rights, told the US Senate that at least two young girls had been sent to Songdowon camp in North Korea.

At the children’s camp, the two girls – Misha, 12, and Liza, 16 – were “taught to ‘destroy Japanese militarists’ and met Korean veterans who … attacked the US Navy ship Pueblo”, she said.

Ms Rashevska made the comments at the start of the US Senate’s hearing on Russia’s mass abduction of Ukrainian children.

At least 19,546 Ukrainian children are believed to have been abducted from Russian-controlled territory and taken to Russia since the start of the invasion in Feb 2022.

They are often taken to re-education camps, where they are “militarised and Russified”, Ms Rashevska said, adding that the human rights centre had identified at least 165 such camps.

The Songdowon camp – located in Wonsan, North Korea – hosts around 400 children every year. It hosts a series of activities, including a water park, a football pitch and a large private beach.

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Russia is one of a handful of countries that is allowed to send children to the camp. A former attendee, Yuri Frolov, previously told CNN that he attended the camp when he was 15, and socialised with children from Laos, Nigeria, Tanzania and China.

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Earlier this week, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said only 1,859 Ukrainian children abducted by Russia had been brought back so far. Kyiv has made the return of stolen Ukrainian children a key demand during US-brokered peace negotiations with Russia, which are set to continue on Thursday.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43026095

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The carbon border tax, which comes into force from January, was behind an attempt by the big exporters to scupper wider negotiations on climate action at the latest UN summit in Brazil.

Speaking in the aftermath at COP30, Wopke Hoekstra told the Financial Times that the petrostates had also been “more assertive” across the board in a bid to thwart climate agreements as the shift to cleaner energy systems accelerates.

“Some of those making money out of [fossil fuels] are seeking to prolong that process. We have seen this quite explicitly,” he said. “Some of the petrostates are seeking to at least slow down rather than speed up [the energy transition].”

He added: “I have sensed a certain sense of assertiveness that might not have been there five or 10 years ago.”

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During public and closed-door meetings at the two-week talks, some of the developing countries argued the tax, or carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), was a unilateral measure that would drive up costs, restrict trade and hinder their ability to grow their economies.

The tax will initially apply to products such as steel, cement and fertilisers, and aims to ensure imported goods meet similar green standards to those produced inside the EU or face an additional charge.

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Hoekstra said the criticism was “clearly not very credible”, adding that in one-on-one conversations many countries “acknowledge it is clearly a climate tool” rather than a trade measure.

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More than 80 countries had rallied around a proposal at COP30 for a so-called road map to help countries wean their economies off fossil fuels. But the plan failed to appear in the final agreement after objection from more than 30 other countries [particularly China, Russia, and petro-states in the Middle East].

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42997414

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The EU is considering legally forcing industries to reduce purchases from China to insulate Europe from future hostile acts, the industry commissioner, Stéphane Séjourné, says.

He made his remarks as the European Commission unveiled a €3bn (£2.63bn) strategy to reduce its dependency on China for critical raw materials amid a global scramble caused by Beijing’s “weaponisation” of supplies of everything from chips to rare earths.

The ReSourceEU programme will seek to de-risk and diversify the bloc’s supply chains for key commodities with a funding initiative to support 25-30 strategic projects in the sector.

It will include new rules to stop scrap aluminium leaving the bloc, recycling of magnets used in car batteries and a new €2bn a year fund backed by the European Investment Bank to support industries diversifying away from cheap Chinese supplies.

Underlining the threats posed by over dependency on China, Séjourné said if industry did not respond, the commission reserved the right to introduce legislation.

“We would force European companies legally to diversify their sources of supply. That is not the case now, and it is not what is proposed in the plan [ReSourceEU] but this is a wake up call, a strong wake up call,” said Séjourné.

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Senior EU officials said that “while the direction is clear” there was a need to “accelerate the process” as China continued to “weaponise” its hold on raw materials for “geopolitical purposes”.

To kickstart the implementation of the strategy, two projects, a molybdenum extraction in Greenland and a lithium mine in Germany will get immediate funding.

The EU will also look at financial support to enable companies to buy from more expensive sources than China and it will set up a “raw materials platform” that will pool company orders and build joint stockpiles.

New restrictions will be introduced on scrap exports in 2026 of the metal and of scrap copper if necessary.

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The EU said the strategy was designed to reduce the impact of “market shocks” such as the disruption to the car industry caused by the recent, now lifted, ban on exports of chips by China in response to the Dutch government taking control of the Chinese-owned chip firm Nexperia.

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Up to €3bn in funding will be mobilised within the next 12 months, with €2bn a year made available by the European Investment Bank in the form of loans, venture debt and private debt plus financing such as loans already issued to a Finnish lithium mine project Keliber.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42954242

French President Emmanuel Macron should privately and publicly stress the importance of human rights in Sino-French relations during his visit to China from December 3 to 5, 2025, Human Rights Watch said today. Macron’s visit is one of several top-level engagements between European and Chinese leaders amid the complex and shifting geopolitical relationships among Europe, China, and the United States.

President Macron should signal his commitment to taking concrete action in response to deepening repression by China. Key issues include

• labor rights abuses in China’s supply chains;
• commercial drones produced by China-based companies being used by Russia to attack civilians in Ukraine;
• and China’s use of transnational repression to target critics abroad, including in France.

“China’s disregard for human rights has important implications for France, from weapons used in unlawful Russian attacks in Ukraine to abusive supply chains that hinders fair competition for European industries,” said Bénédicte Jeannerod, France director at Human Rights Watch. “Macron should break the silos between human rights and other issues and show leadership by including rights concerns in high-level policy discussions with China.”

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• China's industry had built capacity for 20 million EVs and plug-in hybrids annually but remained saddled with enough factories for 30 million gasoline vehicles
• Fossil-fuel vehicles accounted for 76% of China's auto exports since 2020 with annual shipments jumped from 1 million to likely >6.5 million in 2025

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China's electric vehicle (EV) industry captured half its domestic market in just a few years, crushing sales of gasoline-powered vehicles from once-dominant global automakers.

But foreign players were not the only losers. Many Chinese legacy automakers also watched their sales collapse – and responded by flooding the world with fossil-fuel vehicles they could not sell at home.

While Western policymakers have focused on the threat of China's heavily subsidised EVs, protecting their markets with tariffs, US and European automakers face greater competition from China's gas-guzzlers in countries from Poland to South Africa to Uruguay. Fossil-fuel vehicles have accounted for 76% of Chinese auto exports since 2020, and total annual shipments jumped from 1 million to likely more than 6.5 million this year, according to data from China-based consultancy Automobility.

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The boom in China's gasoline-powered exports is driven by the same EV subsidies and policies that wrecked the China businesses of automakers including Volkswagen, General Motors (GM) and Nissan by underwriting scores of Chinese EV makers and igniting a devastating price war, a Reuters examination found. The phenomenon highlights the far-reaching impacts of Chinese industrial policy, as foreign competitors struggle to keep pace with government-backed firms chasing Beijing's goals to dominate critical sectors nationally and globally.

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China's gasoline-vehicle exports alone – not including EVs and plug-in hybrids – were enough last year to make it the world's largest auto-exporting nation by volume, industry and government data show.

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Chinese carmaker SAIC's exports – mostly of its own brands, without [former joint venture partner] GM – soared from nearly 400,000 annually in 2020 to more than a million last year.

Dongfeng's exports of nearly 250,000 vehicles last year, up almost four-fold in five years, proved critical as sales of its China partnerships with Honda and Nissan entered a "downward spiral," said Jelte Vernooij, Dongfeng's Central Europe manager.

Dongfeng's annual global sales have fallen by a million vehicles since 2020, to less than 2 million, company filings show. Yet Vernooij is not worried about Dongfeng's future – because it has Beijing's backing.

"The fact that we're state-owned is key," he said. "There's no question that we will survive."

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China's top auto exporter is Chery, whose global sales rocketed from 730,000 vehicles to 2.6 million between 2020 and 2024. Chery, which has both state and private owners, grew annual exports over the period by about a million units – relying mostly on the gasoline-powered vehicles that comprise four-fifths of its sales. China's top 10 exporters include five other state-owned automakers and two private ones, Geely and Great Wall Motor (GWM), that also sell more gasoline vehicles than EVs.

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Only two of China's top 10 auto exporters focus exclusively on battery-powered vehicles. One of them is US electric-car pioneer Tesla. The other is BYD, which sells only EVs and plug-in hybrids.

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Chinese automakers' rush to export gasoline cars can be traced to government policies that created a glut of factory capacity to build them.

China's rapid EV growth idled assembly lines capable of producing up to 20 million gasoline-powered cars annually, estimates Automobility CEO Bill Russo. Such unproductive overhead raises costs, pressuring automakers to repurpose capacity for exports.

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[Chinese] automakers got cheap EV factories financed by [Chinese] cities and provinces eager to demonstrate development.

"Local governments even prepare the land and build the factories, allowing companies to 'move in with just a suitcase,'" said Liang Linhe, chairman of Sany Heavy Truck, among China's largest truck makers.

The result: massive overcapacity. At a March EV conference, Su Bo, China's former vice minister of industry, urged regulators to promote the conversion of gasoline-car factories to build battery-powered models. He estimated China's industry had built capacity for 20 million EVs and plug-in hybrids annually but remained saddled with enough factories for 30 million gasoline vehicles – far more than its domestic market needs.

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