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Yeah, EVs will naturally take over the market as they become more desirable/affordable. Meanwhile, if anything, banning ICE cars will make personal cars even more of a luxury.
Why would it be more of a luxury? Fuel and maintenance should be cheaper, and with proper investments the cars should be cheaper as well. A lot of the battery research right now is showing batteries that could last say 1,000,000 miles. If you get decent standards for such, you could have parents getting a new car and moving their old battery into a cheap EV for their teenager. If it had 200,000 miles on it, they can keep moving it to their next vehicle, and next vehicle if they keep wanting to get new features. The average American drives 14,000 miles a year. In theory they can pass that battery down to their teenager as well, but at that point it's probably better to just recycle it or use it as a backup generator for the home.
Making repairable, recyclable, reusable batteries takes one of the largest costs down by a long shot.
Notre; Obviously batteries don't last miles, but for sake of this discussion it made sense to put it this way
But in much of the EU, electricity is expensive.
I had an EV for a while (tons of people have company cars in Belgium) and charging it at a fast charging station costs like 10% more per km than gas. A regular charging station is very slightly cheaper.
Charging at home used to be cheaper, but now energy companies charge a fee for "peak energy usage" that is more than 15 minutes, so if you charge your car at 11kW at home once in a month, you will get an extra fee on your 250€/month energy bill of 50€.
I am interested in that battery research though, because charge-cycle wise, only lithium iron phosphate subsection of EV battery chemistry would last even near that long. Lithium ion only lasts 500 cycles before degrading to 70% and LiPo is only 1000. My ID4 could do 420 km on a charge, assuming a LiPo composition, that is 420k kilometers, which is a quarter of what you say. That said, that is a pretty long lifetime for a car. Especially because all of the sensor systems would break down or be remotely disabled to force you to buy new ones long before then.
Battery cells degrade very different depending on how they are used. The cycles you mention are the typical values for charging up to 100% and then emptying them completely. This isn't how EVs are usually driven. Cells that are only charged to about 80% most of the time live longer. And with large arrays of cells as in an EV battery, the charging electronics also don't just charge and discharge all cells evenly but can optimize for lifetime. Many EVs also don't charge all cells to full when the car says it's at 100% to increase the lifetime (that's why you sometimes see a "net capacity" mentioned, it's the amount of energy the battery management actually allows compared to what the cells could do).
There are also studies that show that typical usage patterns with small charges all the time (from recuperating) and having long rest times (when the car is parked somewhere) results in a much longer lifetime than simulations with constant use had given, e.g. here: https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2024/12/existing-ev-batteries-may-last-up-to-40-longer-than-expected
Battery chemistry is of course also something there is new developments in, for example CATL is starting production of sodium ion batteries, but AFAIK these are more about cost per capacity than lifetime.