this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2025
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In the short (next couple lifetimes) term, the US will continue receding from different geopolitical arenas, followed by some political jostling to change that region's power balance.
As the empire shrinks, the politics of scarcity will become more pervasive, entrenching clientelism and mistrust in an already fairly low-trust society.
It's not a hot take to say that mask-off fascism is on the menu given how fascism-shaped the US is, but given how autocanibalistic this particular right wing wave is, I have no idea what to expect.
Don't know whether the new boss will be the same as the old boss; while India and China don't seem particularly empire-inclined, few countries do until they're the one with the biggest stick. Both have been drumming up nationalism internally for the last decade, so if they can't defuse it safely they'll point it at each other, to everybody's detriment.