this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2025
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We are also seeing peak China. Their demographic problems will be a severe drag going forward. It'll be a multi-power world, not a Chinese hegemony.
First off, the Chinese don't seek global hegemony like the Western powers, no matter what the projection and propaganda says. (This is far too big of a topic for short comment but the Chinese have never done Roman-style imperialism in all of their history. Also, according to my research, China hasn't made a new territorial claim in over 70 years, since the KMT era)
Second off, I did some comparisons on this website. I honestly wasn't sure what I was going to see but China's pyramid is better than all the "developed" countries and it really blows their East Asian neighbors out of the water. Therefore, I don't buy the argument that China is doomed by its demographics, unless we are saying that all the peer comparison nations are even more doomed.
I happen to believe that the Chinese are right and we are entering a New Chinese Century, with the Middle Kingdom once again the economic center of a prosperous and powerful Asia. They are on the cusp (speaking in years) of completely defeating "containment", and have built an industrial ecosystem unlike anything the world has ever seen. Of course that all goes out the window if the nukes start flying.
China also has a huge gender imbalance. All those excess men count differently than men in other countries with a balanced gender dynamic. Also, China's demographics (according to the website) do not compare favorably to the US. That said, it'll be India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria and places like this that production shifts to as China ages.
The whole demographic crisis in China is largely based on misinterpretation of the data for the benefit of low intellect racists
The capital you rely on in your argument has a asymptote, and as China approaches this line, growth will happen at a diminishing rate. How much technical progress can they squeeze out of the tube? Is it enough to deal with demographic collapse? Probably not.
Yup, because it's absolutely impossible for China to change policies that would encourage higher birth rate or open up immigration. Enjoy masturbating to your China collapse fantasies.