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I've been hearing the same since the start of the war - Russia is running out of weapons, economy is collapsing etc. but here we are, Russia still kicking Ukraine's ass and sending hundreds of drones and plenty of missiles each day. Russia is resilient plus help from NK, China and Iran - I doubt they will collapse anytime soon. But even if they collapse, who will get the helm? Will it be better for Ukraine? World?
Bullshit. They planned to conquer Kiev in 3 days. Here we are almost 4 years later. It’s surprising how weak they are.
They planned for Zelenskyy's government to collapse. It didn't. That doesn't mean they're unable to carry on the war indefinitely with a major advantage in manpower and war material.
They were already importing arillery shells, and they are out of Soviet reserves.
They won't collapse, but they will drift even more into the Chinese sphere of influence, while they have already lost their own.
Point is, the West and China can keep Ukrainians and Russians killing each other as long as they don't stop funding either side, which will then collapse pretty much immediately.
In any case, Russia is pretty much done as a world power, and the only two questions is whether the US and the EU will become independent world players after Trump, and when the killing will actually stop.
It's a purely political question, because both China and the EU can keep this up forever.
If i was Xi I'd be invading Eastern Russia and annexing Siberia/Kamchatka/Vladivostok and seizing the oil reserves.
Why invade when they can colonise without invasion?
There is no point doing that as long as the Belt and Road takes over old Russian aligned states' infrastructure and the kids of the Moscow elite start learning Mandarin, both of which is happening.
I expect when climate change melts the permafrost, the companies exploiting Siberia's riches will be all Chinese. If Russia is luckier than most, they will at least employ Russians for the more menial jobs. As long as they can speak fluent Mandarin.
China wisely prefer s economic domination rather than military. And Russia's still got nukes.
I don't think it's this simple. Russia is primarily relying on China as a buyer for its hydrocarbons. It has a large and developed military industrial complex. Ukraine has had to bootstrap its arms industry since the war started. Russia also imports artillery from North Korea. Europe has historically had a dearth of war material and industry, so Ukraine can't just order a million shells from Germany or something, although maybe this is where we're headed. Just because we don't want Russia to win doesn't mean they don't have major military and economic advantages. Ukraine hasn't gained any territory since the Kursk offensive, which was short lived, and they lose ground slowly every day. While I agree that this can go on indefinitely, I don't think the sides are evenly matched.