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The real shock to Americans will be when they discover this can't be fixed.
Americans want to believe that relations will return to normal once the democrats are back in power. But, they don't understand that the loss of trust in the US is permanent. Sure, if the democrats take back power and want to negotiate trade deals, other countries may sign them. They're just not going to believe that the US can be trusted to honour the terms of those trade deals, and will structure the deals accordingly. Trump's 2 terms show that a treaty signed by the US is meaningless, because a president like Trump can come along and just rip it up. They've also showed that support for someone Trump-like is close enough to 50% that it can easily happen again.
The momentum of international trade, and the vast power the US wields means that there won't be a sudden cutting off of the US. But, bit by bit, even former staunch allies are going to start slowly pivoting away from the US whenever possible no matter who's elected and how big a landslide it is.
At least in my circles, I think we're aware? People are looking real hard at ways to leave. We've also got a higher than usual chance of reforming/refurbishing some of those broken guard rails. Fingers crossed.
The folks supporting Trump, on the other hand, already believed that these relationships were dead and bad. They'll scapegoat somebody else for the decay; I do not see the avenue for this to be a learning experience.
I'm specifically talking about Americans thinking that the rest of the world will get over this. I think that trust has been broken.
Like you talk about broken guard rails. The US has been lecturing the world on how the US system of democracy is the best for decades now. There's always talk about how there's a system of checks and balances, and how US democracy can be messy, but in the end it's a system that works. I don't think anybody believes that anymore. The guard rails were always an illusion, and even if all of Trump's changes were rolled back, the rest of the world would know that the guard rails, and the checks and balances are all just an elaborate delusion.
And I guess I'm specifically reporting on my circle of american's, who are both aware that we've burned a lot of goodwill and trust (though tbh, I'd hoped the trust was lost already after trump 1...).
The checks and balances held for Trump 1 relatively, and held for previous abuses before that (at least, sufficiently that folks would let the US say such things). I don't think it's obvious that they are irrepairable/irreplaceable: we could have a revolution and rebuild from scratch, as an extreme example. It is obvious that systems must change to do so; reorganizing the supreme court, changing campaign finance, etc. If they change, and how much, idk what to expect. But I think ~half the country knows it'll take serious reforms, and it still wont put the US back where it was. Trust != systems.
Yeah, trust has been burned and it's not coming back quickly. Maybe reform the systems and trust will eventually be built back. But, by that time the US won't be a major power anymore, so it won't matter as much.
Major power computations I think are harder. I agree the US is falling, but I don't think I've seen a serious analysis claiming that the US will become merely a power amongst a few dozen others anytime in the next few decades? We're about to become much poorer and less diplomatically influential, but still nukes, still the huge military spending, still capitalists with hands in other economies?