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I've been hearing the same since the start of the war - Russia is running out of weapons, economy is collapsing etc. but here we are, Russia still kicking Ukraine's ass and sending hundreds of drones and plenty of missiles each day. Russia is resilient plus help from NK, China and Iran - I doubt they will collapse anytime soon. But even if they collapse, who will get the helm? Will it be better for Ukraine? World?
In the first 2 years, we waited for use of armoured vehicles to hit their monthly rate of production. This has largely happened, the reserves of armour that USSR built up have been spent by Russia. Vehicles that still stand in parking lots require deep renovation (slow and costly). So this prediction has largely come true.
In the first 3 years, we waited for Russia's sovereign wealth fund to empty, ending Putin's ability to shelter the economy against the cost of war. This now seems to have largely happened, as the central bank is selling reserves of gold. It follows that more appropriate things to sell are scarce.
We also waited for Russia's inventory of civilian planes and railway locomotives + carriages to degrade due to lack of spare parts. This has not fully come true. Planes fly less, railways transport less, but they smuggle spare parts from third countries.
We have waited for Russia's oil and gas revenues to fall, and they have fallen, considerably. At current levels, under Ukrainian "sanctions by drone", Russia has to cut other budget lines to finance the war - and it has cut or frozen other budget lines (social security, health care, education, almost everything - war makes up approximately 40% of the government budget).
We have waited for the wages of soldiers to drop, and for soldiers to understand that inflation will make the money they got worthless. This has only partly happened - several regions have announced that they cannot pay large one-time compensations to people going to war.
We have waited for a crisis in Russia's economy, and in some sectors there already is a crisis. Purchases of new cars, real estate and agricultural equipment have fallen sharply. Many companies have reduced work weeks (reduced pay), owe employees wages, or cannot service their debts.
If Putin overplays his hand and economy does collapse, this does not automatically mean his replacement. He's a dictator and has a KGB background, he knows to expect rebellions and can supress them. He knows to expect a coup and may prevent one.
Eventually he'll be replaced. We can't influence or predict the personal characteristics of his successor, but whoever replaces him will very surely want to end the war, and doesn't have to save face while doing that.
However, Levada's polls - arguably the only polls which could indicate the real state of Russian society - do not indicate the ground shifting yet. They indicate that people are universally tired of the war, but not yet willing to end it by returning land to Ukraine.
For example, the "country is going in the right direction" indicator currently stands at 65%. Surfing on waves of war propaganda, it topped at 75% last year (rising from a low of 48% before the war - explains why Putin needed the war - to secure his own power), but it's in a downward trend.
So, sadly, propaganda is still working, but it's not working as well as it used to. In the "battle of the fridge and TV" (for people's opinion) sadly the TV still prevails.
One thing I learned reading the ISW's reports (especially around the Wagner coup attempt) is that Putin is apparently a moderate in Russian politics. There are some regional leaders I might honestly prefer Putin to.
If you think of Kadyrov, he's visibly very unwell. Watched a video of him condemning a Ukrainian drone strike recently. Barely keeps his eyes open and reads like a robot.
Yeah, the Chechen guy.
I don't wish sickness on folks, but honestly, that'll help me sleep easier. What he says in public is scary.